Sports Prediction and Simulation with R: Monte Carlo, Elo Ratings, and Forecasting

Sports are unpredictable — but with the right tools, you can model, simulate, and forecast outcomes with surprising accuracy.
This book is a practical introduction to sports prediction using R, designed for readers who want to combine their passion for sports with the power of data-driven modeling.

Across 49 focused pages, you will explore how to move from intuition to reproducible analytics, learning step by step how to implement the core methods of modern sports forecasting.

What you will learn inside:

• Foundations of sports prediction: from historical rating systems to modern applications in betting, fantasy sports, and scouting.

• Elo and Glicko ratings: origins, theory, and full R implementations with the PlayerRatings package.

• Monte Carlo simulation: how to simulate games, seasons, and tournaments to estimate win probabilities and playoff chances.

• Forecasting models: logistic regression, Poisson models, and other statistical tools for predicting match outcomes.

• Practical R workflows: setting up R and RStudio, using tidyverse tools, and ensuring reproducibility with set.seed().

• Applications across sports: from football and basketball to American football, tennis, baseball, and even esports.

This is not a theoretical textbook. It is a hands-on guide, packed with R code examples you can run immediately to simulate outcomes and test scenarios. By the end, you will understand how to:

• Build and customize rating systems for teams and players.

• Run counterfactual simulations to answer “what-if” questions about injuries, transfers, or roster changes.

• Compare different modeling approaches (Elo, Poisson, Bayesian, machine learning) for predictive accuracy.

• Apply the same techniques to multiple sports and competitions.

Who is this book for?

• Students and researchers exploring sports analytics for the first time.

• Data scientists interested in applying R to real-world prediction problems.

• Sports fans and bettors who want to understand the math and code behind forecasts.

• Coaches and scouts looking for new tools to evaluate performance and outcomes.

Concise but practical, this guide will give you the knowledge and code you need to start predicting sports outcomes with R. No fluff — just the essential methods, well-explained and ready to apply.